Demand Planning
System live
3 escalations
Wk 15 / 52
WMAPE
22.4%
Target <25% On target
In-stock · A-items
96.8%
Target >97% Slightly low
Weeks of supply
5.6 wks
Target 4–8 wks Healthy
Forecast bias
+3.1%
Target ±5% Acceptable
SKU performance · ABC/XYZ
6 of 312 SKUs
| SKU | Class | WoS | WMAPE | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Sunfoil 2L COOK-001 · Willowton |
A X | 6.2 | 18.4% | On track |
Iwisa 5kg MEAL-014 · Tiger Brands |
A Y | 4.1 | 24.7% | Review |
Albany Bread BAKE-022 · Sasko |
A X | 3.8 | 21.1% | Low stock |
Cremora 750g BVGE-008 · Nestlé SA |
B Y | 8.9 | 29.3% | Excess |
Doom Spray HOME-031 · SC Johnson |
B Z | 11.4 | 38.6% | Excess |
Nando's Sauce COND-019 · Nando's SA |
C X | 5.3 | 31.2% | On track |
Escalation alerts
3 active
⚠
Albany Bread · BAKE-022 — stockout risk
3.8 WoS at 4 JHB stores. Lead time 5 days via Sasko DC Boksburg. Est. lost sales: R 18,400. Expedite PO #44821 immediately.
↑
Doom Spray · HOME-031 — excess at 11.4 WoS
Post-winter demand drop. 11.4 vs 6-wk target. Recommend 20% markdown CPT & DBN. PO #44802 on hold.
⏱
Iwisa 5kg — lead time 14→19 days
Premier FMCG: Durban port congestion. 8 SKUs under SS recalculation. Resolution Wk 17.
✓
Sunfoil 2L — Shoprite BOGO confirmed Wk 17
Lift: +165% (1,240 incremental units). PO #44829 submitted to Willowton. Confidence ±20%.
Demand forecast · Sunfoil 2L (COOK-001)
Holt-Winters
Actual
Forecast
Promo
Safety stock calculator
Full LT variability
Service level
Avg weekly demand
450 u
Demand std dev (σ)
120 u
Lead time (weeks)
3 wk
Lead time CV
0.20
Safety stock
—
—
Weekly holding cost
—
@ R24.50/unit · 25% rate
SS = Z × √(LT × σ_d² + d² × σ_LT²) · σ_LT = CV × LT
Open PO pipeline · vendor orders
2 confirmed
1 expedite
1 on hold
| PO ref | Supplier | SKU | DC | Units | Value (R) | MOQ | ETA | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #44821 | Premier FMCG (Sasko) | BAKE-022 | JHB | 4,800 | R 57,600 | 2,400 | Wk 16 | Expedite |
| #44829 | Willowton Group | COOK-001 | DBN | 12,000 | R 216,000 | 6,000 | Wk 17 | Confirmed |
| #44815 | Tiger Brands | MEAL-014 | CPT | 6,200 | R 93,000 | 3,000 | Wk 15 | In transit |
| #44802 | SC Johnson SA | HOME-031 | JHB | 2,400 | R 48,600 | 1,200 | Wk 16 | On hold |
| #44808 | Nestlé SA | BVGE-008 | JHB | 3,600 | R 72,000 | 1,200 | Wk 18 | Confirmed |