SA Retail · Wk 15 · 2026
WMAPE
22.4%
Target <25% On target
In-stock · A-items
96.8%
Target >97% Slightly low
Weeks of supply
5.6 wks
Target 4–8 wks Healthy
Forecast bias
+3.1%
Target ±5% Acceptable
SKU performance · ABC/XYZ
6 of 312 SKUs
SKU Class WoS WMAPE Status
Sunfoil 2L
COOK-001 · Willowton
A X 6.218.4% On track
Iwisa 5kg
MEAL-014 · Tiger Brands
A Y 4.124.7% Review
Albany Bread
BAKE-022 · Sasko
A X 3.8 21.1% Low stock
Cremora 750g
BVGE-008 · Nestlé SA
B Y 8.929.3% Excess
Doom Spray
HOME-031 · SC Johnson
B Z 11.4 38.6% Excess
Nando's Sauce
COND-019 · Nando's SA
C X 5.331.2% On track
Escalation alerts
3 active
Albany Bread · BAKE-022 — stockout risk
3.8 WoS at 4 JHB stores. Lead time 5 days via Sasko DC Boksburg. Est. lost sales: R 18,400. Expedite PO #44821 immediately.
Doom Spray · HOME-031 — excess at 11.4 WoS
Post-winter demand drop. 11.4 vs 6-wk target. Recommend 20% markdown CPT & DBN. PO #44802 on hold.
Iwisa 5kg — lead time 14→19 days
Premier FMCG: Durban port congestion. 8 SKUs under SS recalculation. Resolution Wk 17.
Sunfoil 2L — Shoprite BOGO confirmed Wk 17
Lift: +165% (1,240 incremental units). PO #44829 submitted to Willowton. Confidence ±20%.
Demand forecast · Sunfoil 2L (COOK-001)
Holt-Winters
Actual Forecast Promo
Actuals weeks 4–15, forecast 16–19, promo peak weeks 17–18.
Safety stock calculator
Full LT variability
Service level
Avg weekly demand 450 u
Demand std dev (σ) 120 u
Lead time (weeks) 3 wk
Lead time CV 0.20
Safety stock
Weekly holding cost
@ R24.50/unit · 25% rate
SS = Z × √(LT × σ_d² + d² × σ_LT²) · σ_LT = CV × LT
Open PO pipeline · vendor orders
2 confirmed 1 expedite 1 on hold
PO ref Supplier SKU DC Units Value (R) MOQ ETA Status
#44821 Premier FMCG (Sasko) BAKE-022 JHB 4,800R 57,600 2,400 Wk 16 Expedite
#44829 Willowton Group COOK-001 DBN 12,000R 216,000 6,000 Wk 17 Confirmed
#44815 Tiger Brands MEAL-014 CPT 6,200R 93,000 3,000 Wk 15 In transit
#44802 SC Johnson SA HOME-031 JHB 2,400R 48,600 1,200 Wk 16 On hold
#44808 Nestlé SA BVGE-008 JHB 3,600R 72,000 1,200 Wk 18 Confirmed